Gone Fishing

Heading down to the Arkansas River for the holiday weekend. See you Tuesday.

May 27, 2010 - Earnings Surprises

NM Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. - 138% Surprise
GCO Genesco Inc. - 91% Surprise
CMCO Columbus McKinnon Corp. - 67% Surprise
MOV Movado Group, Inc - 56% Surprise

May 27, 2010 - Earnings Table

Below are stocks with earnings surprise >= 25% in the past 60 days with RS rating of 90 and within 20% of their high.

ACTG Acacia Research Corporation
ADCT ADC Telecommunications
AGP AMERIGROUP Corporation
AMCC Applied Micro Circuits Corporation
APKT Acme Packet, Inc.
ATRO Astronics Corporation
AXTI AXT, Inc.
BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc
BIDU Baidu, Inc.(ADR)
BOFI BofI Holding, Inc.
BTH Blyth, Inc.
BWS Brown Shoe Company, Inc.
BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation
CCIX Coleman Cable, Inc.
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMI Cummins Inc.
CROX Crocs, Inc.
CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation
CSTR Coinstar, Inc.
CVTI Covenant Transportation Group, Inc.
CXG CNX Gas Corporation
DDS Dillard's, Inc.
DGIT DG FastChannel Inc.
DTG Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group, Inc.
DXPE DXP Enterprises, Inc.
EVVV ev3 Inc.
EXBD The Corporate Executive Board Company
FINL The Finish Line, Inc.
GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.
HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
HWK Hawk Corporation
HXL Hexcel Corporation
HYC Hypercom Corporation
IFSIA Interface, Inc.
IPXL Impax Laboratories, Inc.
IRBT iRobot Corporation
KAI Kadant Inc.
LMIA LMI Aerospace, Inc.
LOPE Grand Canyon Education Inc
LQDT Liquidity Services, Inc.
LSCC Lattice Semiconductor
LTXC LTX-Credence Corporation
LULU Lululemon Athletica inc.
MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.
ME Mariner Energy, Inc.
MFB Maidenform Brands, Inc.
MIG Meadowbrook Insurance Group, Inc.
NPSP NPS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
NZ Netezza Corporation
OC Owens Corning
OSIP OSI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
OSTK Overstock.com, Inc.
PACR Pacer International, Inc.
PBY The Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack
PERY Perry Ellis International, Inc.
PII Polaris Industries Inc.
PNK Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc
PPO Polypore International, Inc.
PRTS U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc.
RBCN Rubicon Technology, Inc.
RGR Sturm, Ruger & Company
RST Rosetta Stone Inc.
SAM The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
SIMG Silicon Image, Inc.
SNDK SanDisk Corporation
THOR Thoratec Corporation
UA Under Armour, Inc.
UAUA UAL Corporation
UNCA Unica Corporation
VCI Valassis Communications, Inc.
VIRL Virage Logic Corporation
VTNC Vitran Corporation, Inc. (USA)
WBS Webster Financial Corporation
WCC WESCO International, Inc.
WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

May 26, 2010 - Earnings Surprises Up in After Hours - JAS, NDN, SIGM, SMTC

JAS Jo-Ann Stores, Inc. 0.66 vs Estimates of 0.44 - 50% Surprise
NDN 99 Cents Only Stores 0.24 vs Estimates of 0.17 - 41% Surprise
SIGM Sigma Designs, Inc. 0.29 vs Estimates of 0.23 - 26% Surprise
SMTC Semtech Corporation 0.35 vs Estimates of  0.28 - 25% Surprise

May 26, 2010 - Earnings Surprises Moving Pre-Market

NZ Netezza Corporation 60% Surprise  Up 6.38%
SOLF Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) 111% Surprise Up 11.16%
BWS Brown Shoe Company, Inc. 100% Surprise
LTXC LTX-Credence Corporation 50% Surprise Up 9.65%

May 25, 2010 - Netezza Corporation - Earnings Surprise

NZ Netezza Corporation announced earnings beating expectations by 60% Up 6.38% in afterhours.

Slow and steady wins the race

For a swing trader, trading should not be filled with many emotional highs and lows in any given period. Twenty four hour news has turned investing into this fast paced, fast money, news flash circus ring.  If you're feeling frantic and riding an emotional roller coaster daily, you need to rethink your strategy. It's not about the big win, it's about building on many small wins. You have your routine:

1. You review and maintain watch lists
2. You scan for setups
3. You enter the stock at a proper buy point
4. You exit when you get an exit signal
5. Rinse and repeat.

You do this over and over and over.  As your account grows, you just keep building on those gains day after day, month after month and year after year. Stop thinking every stock you buy will go up 1000 percent, build a routine and focus on growing your account and compounding those gains.

STEC - Earnings Example


STEC, Inc. Issues Q2 2009 Outlook Above Analysts' Estimates
Monday, 11 May 2009 04:06pm EDT
STEC, Inc. announced that for the second quarter of 2009, it expects revenue to range from $68 million to $70 million with diluted non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) to range from $0.20-$0.22. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting the Company to report non-GAAP EPS of $0.10 on revenue of $58 million for the same period.

REV - Earnings Example

0.45 vs Estimates of -0.16

AMZN - Earnings Example


Amazon.com announced that for the fourth quarter of 2009, it expects net sales to be in the range of $8.125-$9.125 billion or to grow between 21% and 36% compared with fourth quarter 2008 and expects operating income (EBIT) to be in the range of $300-$425 million. This guidance includes approximately $100 million for stock-based compensation and amortization of intangible assets, and it assumes, among other things, that no additional business acquisitions or investments are concluded and that there are no further revisions to stock-based compensation estimates. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts are expecting the Company to report EBIT of $368 million on revenues of $8.168 billion for the same period

GMCR - Earnings Example


Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. Raises FY 2009 Revenue Outlook; Issues FY 2009 Outlook
Wednesday, 29 Apr 2009 04:00pm EDT
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. announced that for fiscal 2009, it expects total consolidated net sales growth of 58% to 61%, up from prior estimates of 43% to 48%, fully diluted GAAP earnings per share (EPS) to be in the range of $1.87 to $1.93 per share, including the pre-tax $17 million or $0.40 per diluted share Kraft patent litigation settlement, and including the non-cash amortization expenses related to the identifiable intangibles of $5.3 million or approximately $0.12 per share. Excluding the Kraft litigation settlement, fully diluted non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.47 to $1.53 per share, up from prior estimates of $1.25 to $1.35 per share.

GCI - Earnings Example


Date Actual FC Yr-ago
16-Apr-10 0.5 0.41 0.25
1-Feb-10 0.72 0.64 0.85
19-Oct-09 0.44 0.41 0.76
15-Jul-09 0.46 0.36 1.01








OSK - Earnings Surprise

Oshkosh Corp. announced that it has received an additional $1.06 billion delivery order from the U.S. Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command Life Cycle Management Command (TACOM LCMC). Oshkosh Defense will deliver 1,700 additional MRAP All Terrain Vehicles (M-ATV) to the U.S. Armed Forces by February 2010. The contract also includes aftermarket parts packages to be supplied by April 2010, along with field service support. The delivery order follows an initial $1.05 billion delivery order Oshkosh Defense received for 2,244 M-ATVs on June 30. Oshkosh also announced it surpassed its first delivery requirements for 45 vehicles in July, by providing 46 units. 

PACR - Earnings Example

LF - Earnings Example

OPEN - Earnings Example


Have a good weekend

May 21, 2010 - Earnings Surprise Up in Early Trading

MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd. 49% Earnings Surprise
ANN AnnTaylor Stores Corp. 42% Earnings Surprise
NDSN Nordson Corporation 62% Earnings Surprise
FMCN Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) 42% Earnings Surprise
CPWR Compuware Corporation 42% Earnings Surprise
ARO Aeropostale, Inc. 25% Earnings Surprise

Still in cash. I will be reviewing recent Earnings over the weekend and post some of the stronger Earnings candidates that have held up well in this correction.

May 20, 2010 - After Hours Earnings Movers

ZUMZ Zumiez Inc. 25% Earnings Surprise
NDSN Nordson Corporation 28% Earnings Surprise
SFL Ship Finance International Limited 24% Earnings Surprise
FL Foot Locker, Inc. 21% Earnings Surprise
WTSLA The Wet Seal, Inc. 20% Earnings Surprise

Decent earnings announcements in after the close today; none of the charts look buyable right now. Currently in cash - "wait and see" mode.

5/20 Earnings Surprises

Stocks with an earnings surprise >= 25%

WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc.
KONG KongZhong Corporation (ADR)
SMRT Stein Mart, Inc.
PERY Perry Ellis International, Inc.
LTD Limited Brands, Inc.
BONT The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc.
ADSK Autodesk, Inc.

Stocks with Earnings Suprise up in After Hours

KONG KongZhong Corporation (ADR) 50% Surprise
ADSK Autodesk, Inc. 26% Surprise
SOLR GT Solar International, Inc. 21% Surprise
AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. 19% Surprise

Stocks with Earnings Surprise moving in Pre-Market

TNP Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. 247% Surprise
ABMD ABIOMED, Inc. 108%  Surprise
RL Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation 77%  Surprise
DE Deere & Company 45%  Surprise
CTRN Citi Trends, Inc. 28%  Surprise

Stocks w/ Earnings Surprises Up in After Hours

TNP - Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd.
ADI - Analog Devices, Inc.
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Company
TJX - The TJX Companies, Inc.

Stocks with Earnings Surprises moving in pre-market

KIRK Kirkland's, Inc.
SKS Saks Incorporated
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc.

Stocks with a Earnings Surprise > 50% moving in pre-market.

Stocks with Upward Guidance Moving in Pre-Market

DKS Dick's Sporting Goods
CSKI China Sky One Medical, Inc.

Today's Earnings Surprises

VAL Valspar 42%

LOW Lowe's 10%

The Best Stocks with an Earnings Suprise in the Last 30 Days

Relative Strength > 90; Within 20% of its high; Surprise >= 50%


SymbolCompany% SurpriseRS
ACTGAcacia Research265098
ARMArvinMeritor90094
IRBTIRobot50094
OSTKOverstock.com32998
IPXLImpax Labs30495
HYCHypercom30093
ATROAstronics28799
MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort27597
CBEYCbeyond Comms25092
CROXCrocs25097
LVSLas Vegas Sands25092
KAIKadant23896
ESIOElectro Scientific22090
OCOwens Corning18095
QLTIQLT Inc16791
PNKPinnacle16495
CXGCNX Gas15891
DTGDollar Thrifty15399
FBNFurniture Brands13797
MGAMagna13193
MOHMolina Healthcare12891
TRWTRW Automotive12690
PPOPolypore Intl12198
TZOOTravelzoo11494
CMICummins11493
ACASAmerican Capital11295
PACRPacer Intl106100
HBANHuntington Banc10095
HHyatt Hotels10090
CWEIClayton Williams9996
HWKHawk Corp9693
RGRSturm Ruger9597
MHKMohawk9490
AGPAmerigroup9193
OSIPOSI Pharm9195
HTLFHeartland Finl8595
BIDSotheby's8492
SAMBoston Beer Co8391
ETMEntercom8395
BCBrunswick8298
AMCCApplied Micro8092
SIMOSilicon Motion8097
LCAVLCA Vision7591
RBCNRubicon Tech7596
NPSPNPS Pharm7399
SMSt. Mary Lnd/Expl7390
DGITDG FastChannel6894
MEMariner Energy6797
PRTSUS Auto Parts6796
BOFIBOFI Holding6792
CRSCarpenter Tech6492
VLCMVolcom6390
CSTRCoinstar6299
SNDKSanDisk6196
APKTAcme Packet6099
WHRWhirlpool6092
IFSIAInterface6097
MRTMortons Restaurant Group5797
BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop5097
RUSHARush Enterprises5092









CSTR - Earnings Surprise Example


CSTR beat expectations and raised guidance on April 29, 2010. The stock was moving sideways for 3 weeks prior to earnings. Touched new 6 month high with volume thrust.

Symbol CSTR
Actual 0.21
Estimates 0.13
Float 26mil
%Surprise 62%

PPO - Example Earnings Surpise



PPO beat expectations on May 6, 2010. The stock was moving sideways for 4 weeks prior to earnings. Touched new 6 month high with volume thrust.

Symbol PPO
Actual 0.31
Estimates 0.14
Sector 37
Float 22mil
%Surprise 121%

What happens after large drops on Fridays

Great article at Quantifiable edges. This has been working for the past few months...will it work this upcoming Monday..

http://tinyurl.com/29w34bj

One Earnings Play worth Watching

DDS Dillard's

Stocks Holding Up in the Current Market

Stocks with high RS and high sector RS.

NFLX Music & Video Stores
BC Recreational Goods - Other
AIV Reit-Residential
EQR Reit-Residential
FCBC Regional-Mid Atlantic Banks
FISI Regional-Mid Atlantic Banks
ANV Gold
AVB Reit-Residential
BRE Reit-Residential
CPT Reit-Residential
CYN Regional-Pacific Banks
ESS Reit-Residential
SLW Silver

Earnings Surprises Higher in PreMarket

CRIC China Real Estate Info
CHOP China Gerui
GIL Gildan Activewear *Ups Guidance
AMSC Am Superconductor

Stocks with Upside Guidance Higher in After Hours

WFMI
FY10 EPS of $1.33-1.37 compared to $1.25

Earnings Surprises Higher in After Hours

URS URS
SPTN Spartan Stores
GASS Stealthgas