11/30/2010 - Post Earnings Surprise Review

The market is still in a state of indecision, moving sideways and chopping away at the bulls and bears. I prefer the sidelines during these periods but ended up buying some SLW today since Gold and Silver were moving on higher volume.

If we do get a positive breadth thrust, you can watch these setups from the Post Earnings Surprise watch list for a breakout.


The Post Earnings Surprise watch list contains all stocks with an earnings surprise greater than 50% from the past quarter. To view the full watch list; login into Bluefin and select Post Earnings Surprise from the View Watch List menu.





Stocks Mentioned:
NN, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NNBR)
Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (Public, NASDAQ:MPEL)
LoJack Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:LOJN)

11/29/2010 - Emerging 50 Review

The Emerging 50 contains stocks in the top sectors trailing the leaders found over in the Sector 50 watch list. To view the full watch list; login into Bluefin and select Emerging 50 from the View Watch List menu. Below are a few setups from tonights' list.



Happy Thanksgiving


Playing it Safe


For a short week, we sure are getting thrown around quite a bit. With market breadth readings at extreme levels for the past few weeks, I've been relying on my QQQQ trend indicator to help gauge when to get in and out of the market.

Normally, I look for price to cross over or cross under the 5 day ma paired with a significant breadth thrust in that direction. This move usually confirms a new uptrend or down trend.

The market was looking good a few days ago when we gapped up above the 5 day MA. At the time, breadth seemed weak but it was enough to get things going. Today, we reversed with a bounce off the 20 day MA which is not a promising sign. Volume was higher today compared to the past few days...another ominous sign.

What does this mean? Play it safe, do not take any unnecessary risks and honor your stops. It is possible we work through this over the next few days and head into a end of year rally. The other option is further correction.

11/22/2010 - Today's Best Break Outs

The Percolator scan had 77 breakouts today. Retail, Internet, Oil & Gas, Semis and Silver were just a few of the groups moving today. Below are the best setups from today's Percolator Scan.







Stocks Highlighted:
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (ADR) (Public, NYSE:BVN)
DDi Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:DDIC)
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (Public, NASDAQ:MMLP)
Zumiez Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ZUMZ)
Coinstar, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CSTR)
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMG)

Have a Good Weekend


 

Four Attributes to an Explosive Stock Move

What makes a stock move up rapidly versus some other stock that is a dead fish? Below are four attributes of a stock possibly starting an explosive move.

Volume - Above average volume tells you there is heighten interest in the stock for the day. Compare today's volume against a given time period to see if the stock is up on higher than average volume. Normally, I use a 50 day average volume indicator.

Price - While today’s price matters, it has more meaning in the context of the price action today compared against the past week, month, or year. Depending on how a stock moves today compared against those time periods, you can get a shift of expectations from the market.

Low Float - This is one of the secret ingredients that can propel a stock faster than others. Float is the number of outstanding shares available to the public for trading. Less supply combined with more demand will drive a stock price higher and faster. Why is there more demand? At some point, there is a Shift in Expectations for the stock.

Shift in Expectations - A Shift in Expectations from the market is what drives a stock from a sideways or neglected price pattern to an uptrend. A shift in expectations can occur from news driven events like earnings or simply from the stock making a new high.

For instance, if I’m watching Stock A which has been consolidating for 4 weeks and suddenly it breaks out of that pattern on above average volume, my expectation for that stock has just changed. I’m sure other traders that were watching the stock had a similar shift in expectations.

While there can be news driven events that can cause a Shift in Expectations, the truest indicator is volume and price and how they are acting compared against different time frames.

Price and Volume act as a predictor of increased demand. Many times, price and volume will pick up before the news event occurs. If you’re waiting for a news event you can miss a majority of the move because many times it will be priced into the stock.

A few other items that can cause a Shift in Expectations are earnings guidance, sector strength, or a new ETF coming out around a specific sector (example: Mining and Minerals). The shift can occur from things that seem mundane at first glance, so focusing on the price action of individual stocks can keep you attuned to where the money is flowing.

In the end, the Expectations for a stock are what drive price higher. At some point a shift has occurred where market participants think the stock is worth more than what it was yesterday. Whether their hypothesis is true does not really matter, it is causing more demand for the stock. Things like earnings surprises or guidance can tell us why, but in many cases the moves are more subtle and you have to rely on price and volume for the clues.

4 IPOs that Exploded for Big Gains

When the market takes a breather, I like to review stocks that had explosive runs over the past few months. Normally, I look at the run-up prior to the breakout, how long did the run last, what did the volume look like, was it at highs or lows when it took off, and any other details that might help spot these rockets when they appear in the future.

IPOs are their own type of beast. They tend to trade all over the place, but if you catch one just right, you can smack it out of the park. Below are 4 IPOs that rewarded the bold.





Higher One Holdings, Inc (Public, NYSE:ONE)
Motricity, Inc (Public, NASDAQ:MOTR)
China Real Estate Information Corporation CRIC
BroadSoft Inc (Public, NASDAQ:BSFT)

How To: Use ETF Strategy in Bluefin

Bluefin, the stock scaner for working people now has ETFs!

On Friday, we released the ETF strategy section of Bluefin. The purpose of the ETF strategy is to get you in the best performing ETFs as they start their move while also offering additional entry points on the way up.

 
To get to the ETF section of Bluefin select "ETFs" located up at the top of the page in the grey navigation bar. If you're not seeing a grey bar at the top of your screen, hold the "Shift" key and press the "F5" key at the same time. This will clear your cache and should load the new content.
 
All ETFs have a liquidity check (100,000 shares traded) and also utilize the StockBee Trend Intensity formula to make the cut into our data sets. The StockBee TI value must be greater or equal to 103. This makes up our pool of ETFs. From here we will scan for Entry Signals, Existing Signals and Exit Signals.
 
The first set of data you will see is "ETFs - New Entry Signals".  This section in split into two grids, Leveraged and Non-Leveraged ETFs. A leveraged ETF is exchange traded fund that is designed to give the investors better returns by providing them with additional leverage using borrowed money.
 
This sections scans all ETFs from our pool of ETFs for any ETFs that meet the entry criteria and have not yet been in our system or have had an exit signal prior to this Entry Signal.
 
 
 
When looking at the chart for AGQ, the New Entry signals occured on August 31, 2010. As the ETF moves up it offers a few entry points after consolidating for several days. Finally, an Exit signal occurs on October 21, 2010. 
 
The next section below New Entry Signals, are the Existing Signals. These are the ETFs from our pool that had an Entry Signal and have not met an exit condition. You will use your chart pattern abilities to look for 3 to 5 days consolidation for entry.. Enter the ETF with the highest Trend Intensity offering a low risk entry point.
 
 
 
The last section lists all ETFs meeting our exit condition. When your ETF appears in this list take your profits!

You can also use this section to see when the market is moving out of different groups. For instance, Thursday we had many Emerging Market ETFs appearing in this grid. The next day, China closed down 5%. Just another tool to help with your situtational awareness.

 
All of the grids can contain mulitple pages of ETFs. Use the paging control at the bottom of the grid to browse through each page.
 

 
For the formula junkies, we will be posting the formula for our entry and exit conditions in Bluefin and over at the StockBee members site.
 
The ETF Strategy can be utilized by people who do not have the time to watch stocks during the day but are looking for a way to be in the best performing sectors and groups.

Stockfinder Layout

I've been working on cleaning up the Stock Finder scripts and updating everything with the most recent versions of the Bluefin breakouts. You can download the file by clicking "Share" from the top menu and select "Browse other users shared files". The layout is named "Patientfisherman_Signals".

Have a Good Weekend

Bluefin Feature: ETF Strategy

ETFs Entry and Exits are now in Bluefin. Using the StockBee trend intensity formula we rank all ETFs by trend strength. When then use a time based rank combined with the trend intensity rank to find all ETFs with a new buy signal, currently in a buy signal and an exit signal. We will provide more details on how this is calculated on the StockBee member site and on the Bluefin ETF page.

From StockBee:

Trend Intensity is a measure of velocity an ETF. Trend intensity not only finds a trending ETF but also finds an ETF which is trending with higher velocity. Higher the trend intensity number, the faster is the ETF is moving up.

The ETF Screen is split into 3 sections.
  • New Entry Signals - Leveraged and Non-Leveraged ETFs ranked by Trend Intensity with an ETF Buy Signal.
  • Existing Entry Signals - Leveraged and Non-Leveraged ETFs ranked by Trend Intensity that are currently in a Buy signal.
  • Exit Signals - All ETFs: ETFs with an exit signal.
I will draft up a How To over the weekend.

Tips and Tricks: How to Use a Trade Trigger

With some pre-planning on your part, you can automate your daily trading activities. With most online brokerages, you can find some type of trigger event that you can apply to an individual stock. Trade triggers allow you to set entry and exit alerts based on one or a set of conditions.

To do this, you need to schedule some time nightly for review of setups from the Bluefin watch lists. I recommend focusing on Sector 50 and Emerging 50.

One example, you spotted GGAL in the Emerging 50 list on October 15, 2010. It had a nice multi-week consolidation with tight trading action.



Let’s say you wanted to schedule a trigger to email you when the stock trades above 10.70. Let’s use Ameritrade Trade Triggers for the demonstration.

First, go to the “Trade”Menu and Select “Trade Triggers” over to the right.


The Trade Triggers Entry form will appear. This is where you enter the conditions for your alert.



This trigger will be for a stock, click the “Stock” radio button. Normally, this is the default setting. Next, enter your symbol and then the Condition. I typically use “Last” versus “Bid” or “Ask”. Last is the last amount that the stock traded. Operators allow you to set when the trigger occurs on the selected Condition. In this case, I’ve selected “Greater than or equal to”. Finally, our entry point of 10.70 is entered in the “Amount” field. Now we have our condition defined for the alert. When the stock trades at or above 10.70 we want some event to occur.


Our event can be: Trigger a Stock Order, Trigger an Option Order, or Trigger an Alert. I typically use “Trigger an Alert”. Why? If you have several of these setup and you have a big thrust day it is possible all 5, 10, 20 triggers will execute your buy orders. Let’s just say, you can use up your daily day trading margin balance really quick!


With the email option, you will receive a notification in your email alerting you that your stock just hit your buy amount. When time permits, you can then check out the stock and make the decision to enter or not enter.

I like this flexibility but some people might like the more automated option "Trigger a Stock Order" removing them from the decision process.

After selecting “Trigger an Alert”, click the drop down menu under “Send an email notification to” and select your email address.

Then, pick a date for the trigger to expire. I use a 5 day expiration. You will receive an email when the trigger expires.

Finally, click “Submit Trigger” and you are set. You can run through this process and configure your stocks to trigger a stop alert as well.

For many people, it comes down to organizing around their time. If you normally have five to ten minutes free several times a day, you can schedule check-in times where you run through the stocks in Bluefin and make your purchases. My check in times are around 10 EST, 2 EST, and 3:55 EST.

If your schedule is less predictable or access is limited you need to use something like trade triggers to notify you. In the evenings, allocate time to review stocks and figure out your entry and stops. Then, it is a matter of entering the trade order when the event does trigger.

In the end, it’s about organizing around your time and committing to a daily routine to make it happen.

11/09/20 - Sector 50 Review: Metals and Mining

Looking at the sector 50, you can sort by percent change to see the sectors getting the smack down and the sectors taking off on any given day. Today, it was apparent that Metals and Mining took a digger.

Below are the hardest hit stocks from those sectors. Check out the price reversals on above average volume. Profit targets would of been a better way to manage these stocks versus some type of exit using moving averages or multi-day low. Looks like permanent damage was done, but you never know with this market.









Almaden Minerals Ltd. (USA) (Public, AMEX:AAU)


Alexco Resource Corp. (USA) (Public, AMEX:AXU)

Endeavour Silver Corp. (CAN) (Public, AMEX:EXK)

General Moly, Inc. (Public, AMEX:GMO)

Hecla Mining Company (Public, NYSE:HL)

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (Public, NYSE:SLW)

Uranium Energy Corp. (Public, AMEX:UEC)

Uranerz Energy Corp. (Public, AMEX:URZ)

Market Breadth Indicator - Bullish Percent Index


One of the StockBee members (CKBergin) mentioned this market breadth indicator a week or so ago and I thought it was an easy-to-read breadth indicator worth sharing.

In short, Market Breadth Indicators tell us the underlying strength of the market or any given index. Stockcharts.com describes the Bullish Percent Index as:

The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks on Point & Figure buy signals within an index. Because a stock is either on a P&F buy or sell signal, there is no ambiguity when it comes to P&F charts. This makes BPI a straightforward indicator with clearly defined signals.

Basically, you are watching for the daily index line to cross over or cross under the 10 day moving average. When the you get a cross above, you would move in to the market, cross under you move back into cash.

You can watch the indicator for all of the major indexes:

$BPCOMPQ - Nasdaq
$BPNYA - NYSE
$BPSPX - S&P 500
$BPINDU - Dow

Weekend Research: 93 Low Float Stocks with an Earnings Surprise in the Past 30 Days

CompanySymbolSurprise
Nabi BiopharmaceuticalsNABI1300
Volcano CorporationVOLC900
Acacia Research
Corporation
ACTG678
Sony Corporation (ADR)SNE517
Melco Crown Entertainment
Ltd
MPEL400
Echostar CorporationSATS400
Acorda Therapeutics Inc.ACOR358
LSI Industries, Inc.LYTS350
LoJack CorporationLOJN314
DepoMed, Inc.DEPO300
PrivateBancorp, Inc.PVTB300
AirMedia Group Inc. (ADR)AMCN300
W&T Offshore, Inc.WTI291
Compellent Technologies,
Inc.
CML275
Cornerstone Therapeutics,
Inc.
CRTX275
Titan International, Inc.TWI267
Vanda Pharmaceuticals
Inc.
VNDA267
Winnebago Industries,
Inc.
WGO240
Mercury Computer Systems
Inc.
MRCY220
Fuel Tech Inc.FTEK200
Clearwire CorporationCLWR195
Hornbeck Offshore
Services, Inc.
HOS179
iRobot CorporationIRBT157
Meritage Homes
Corporation
MTH157
Callidus Software Inc.CALD150
JMP Group Inc.JMP143
Lear CorporationLEA135
Caliper Life Sciences
Inc.
CALP117
Ultralife Corp.ULBI117
AMERIGROUP CorporationAGP107
Limelight Networks, Inc.LLNW100
Hypercom CorporationHYC100
ISTA Pharmaceuticals,
Inc.
ISTA100
ShoreTel, Inc.SHOR100
Exar CorporationEXAR100
Town Sports International
Holdings, Inc.
CLUB100
VASCO Data Security
International, Inc.
VDSI100
Travelzoo Inc.TZOO100
Avid Technology, Inc.AVID100
Guidance Software, Inc.GUID100
Keithley Instruments,
Inc.
KEI96
MainSource Financial
Group Inc.
MSFG90
QLT Inc. (USA)QLTI86
LoopNet, Inc.LOOP83
JinkoSolar Holding Co.,
Ltd.
JKS82
Wintrust Financial
Corporation
WTFC81
Isilon Systems, Inc.ISLN80
The Medicines CompanyMDCO79
NN, Inc.NNBR77
3D Systems CorporationTDSC77
Green Plains Renewable
Energy Inc.
GPRE77
Electronics For Imaging,
Inc.
EFII77
Astronics CorporationATRO71
Lindsay CorporationLNN71
Great Wolf Resorts, Inc.WOLF70
MIPS Technologies, Inc.MIPS70
Orbitz Worldwide, Inc.OWW67
Obagi Medical Products,
Inc.
OMPI67
HORSEHEAD HOLDING CORP.ZINC67
Madison Square Garden,
Inc.
MSG67
RailAmerica, Inc.RA64
Symmetricom, Inc.SYMM62
Hill International Inc.HIL62
K-Sea Transportation
Partners L.P.
KSP60
Zoran CorporationZRAN60
Intrepid Potash, Inc.IPI60
OPNET Technologies, Inc.OPNT60
Par Pharmaceutical
Companies, Inc.
PRX59
Bronco Drilling Company,
Inc.
BRNC58
Internet Brands, Inc.INET57
Allied World Assurance
Holdings, Ltd.
AWH56
Rigel Pharmaceuticals,
Inc.
RIGL55
Monotype Imaging Holdings
Inc.
TYPE55
Fortinet, Inc.FTNT55
STEC, Inc.STEC55
Web.com Group, Inc.WWWW54
TTM Technologies, Inc.TTMI54
Digital River, Inc.DRIV54
Hawaiian Holdings, Inc.HA53
ExlService Holdings, Inc.EXLS53
OpenTable IncOPEN53
Air Methods CorporationAIRM51
DragonWave, Inc.(USA)DRWI50
Hyatt Hotels CorporationH50
NewStar Financial, Inc.NEWS50
Rush Enterprises, Inc.RUSHA50
M/I Homes, Inc.MHO50
DICE HOLDINGS, INC.DHX50
Hoku CorporationHOKU50
The Knot, Inc.KNOT50
PowerSecure International, Inc.POWR50
GSI Technology, Inc.GSIT50
SPS Commerce, Inc.SPSC50

Weekend Research - IPOs with Earnings Surprise in the Past 30 Days

CompanySymbolSurprise
JinkoSolar Holding Co.,
Ltd.
JKS82
Fortinet, Inc.FTNT55
OpenTable IncOPEN53
SPS Commerce, Inc.SPSC50
Hyatt Hotels CorporationH50
Noranda Aluminum Holding
Corporation
NOR45
Codexis, Inc.CDXS38
QuinStreet IncQNST38
TeleNav, Inc.TNAV32
Talecris Biotherapeutics
Holdings Corp
TLCR30
RealDRLD29
Addus Homecare CorporationADUS27
Ancestry.com IncACOM26
CBOE Holdings, IncCBOE18
SolarWinds, Inc.SWI17
Alimera Sciences IncALIM17
Envestnet, Inc.ENV17
LogMeIn, Inc.LOGM16
Bridgepoint Education,
Inc.
BPI15
MaxLinear, Inc.MXL14
KAR Auction Services IncKAR12
Changyou.com Limited(ADR)CYOU9
Sensata Technologies
Holding N.V.
ST7
FabrinetFN7
Motricity, IncMOTR7
Primerica, Inc.PRI6
Verisk Analytics, Inc.VRSK6
PAA Natural Gas Storage,
L.P.
PNG5
Charm Communications IncCHRM4
Generac Holdings Inc.GNRC4

Cheers.

Tips and Tricks for Working Stiffs

Trading while having a full-time job can be pretty challenging for us working stiffs. Trying to juggle the meetings, workload and tracking stocks can be overwhelming. How many times have you peeked down at your Iphone during a meeting to see what the S&P was doing?!

We do not have the ability to react to market conditions and the individual stock movements. I’m going to tell you a secret; this actually can work to your benefit. Baby sitting stocks can lead to over trading and lost gains.

One of the most popular questions is how to manage stocks during the day while competently performing your job. I will begin highlighting some tools and features I use to help manage stocks during my daily routine. Hopefully, they will help you keep on top of the market and your job.

11/03/2010 - The Percolator Scan's Best Break Outs

Within a 30 minute period today, I went from all cash to all in. I have to admit, for a few hours there, I was sweating it, but the market recovered from the lows of the day and we had some very nice breakouts. Below are the best breakouts from the Percolator scan.














Stocks in this Post:

Puda Coal, Inc PUDA
LJ International, Inc. JADE (Current Position)
Web.com Group, Inc. WWWW
Trimble Navigation Limited TRMB
Travelzoo Inc. TZOO
Cardtronics, Inc. CATM
Plantronics, Inc. PLT
Limelight Networks, Inc. LLNW
F5 Networks, Inc. FFIV (Current Position)
Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN
GT Solar International, Inc. SOLR
Lindsay Corporation LNN